<think>

Let me analyze this KOSPI 200 futures market data systematically according to the Tier 1 → Tier 4 priority order.

Parsing the Data

Market Data

News Context

The market's down on concerns about war risk and won weakness—the K200's dropped about 3.1% in early trading and the KOSPI's following suit. Oil and FX are both climbing, which is adding pressure to the Korean market.

What I need to find (Tier 1):

For mean reversion, the early morning move was -3.09%, which exceeds the threshold and triggers a warning. The midday data shows -2.12%, still significant.

Now I'm noticing the data might be timestamped from the previous day (March 30) even though this report is for March 31, so I need to verify which prices are actually from today versus yesterday. I'm working through the data structure more carefully now. The market data from 2026-03-31 appears to contain multiple timestamps, with the K200 early morning showing a price of 780.32 with a -3.09 change and prevClose of 805.19 from March 30, while midday data shows 763.81 with a -2.12 change from the 780.32 reference point. The market/asia data seems to have been fetched at 09:05 on March 31 using the March 30 close of 805.19 as the previous close, which would make the -3.09 change represent the current day's move rather than the daily change metric I'm trying to parse. I'm noticing the ticker data shows March 30 as the reference point, but the analysis date is March 31, which suggests either the ticker hasn't updated yet or there's a timezone discrepancy. The key observation is that the market data reflects the previous day's close rather than the current day's movement. Looking at the change percentages, -3.09% is definitely outside the ±2% threshold, so the mean reversion warning should trigger. I notice the K200 price dropped from 780.32 to 763.81 between the two data points, which aligns with the -2.12% midday change showing further decline.

I'm noticing a data discrepancy where the early morning K200 shows a -3.09% change from 805.19 (the previous close), while midday shows -2.12% from 780.32, but I can't locate the actual K200 futures price needed to calculate the basis. Let me check if the K200 index itself can be used as a proxy for the futures data.

I'm missing several critical data points: the actual futures price, basis calculation, foreign investor flow data for both spot and futures, VIX readings, and the high-yield spread metrics. The active signals list does flag the futures basis as critical, but without the underlying price data, I can't work with it directly.

I'm working through the calculation based on the timestamps—comparing the March 30 and March 31 close prices to estimate the daily change—and I can see the K200 is down significantly at around -5.15% for the full session, which triggers the mean reversion warning since it exceeds the ±3% threshold. I'm working through the price movements more carefully—the early morning shows a -3.09% drop from the previous close, while midday reflects a further -2.12% decline from that morning level, totaling around -5.15% from the original close. The key issue is that I only have index prices available, not the actual futures price, so I can't calculate the basis directly. For the other metrics like foreign net buying and program arbitrage, the data isn't provided in what I'm seeing. Looking at the midday data more carefully, the K200 price of 763.81 with a -2.12% change from the previous close of 780.32 suggests this might be capturing intraday movements throughout March 31 rather than just the morning snapshot.

For the mean reversion analysis, the combined price drop from 805.19 to 763.81 represents roughly a 5.2% decline, which exceeds the ±3% threshold and triggers a warning. Since I'm missing several key data points like the futures basis, foreign buying patterns, and VIX readings, I'll need to mark those as unavailable and focus on what's actually measurable from this dataset. Looking at the rest of the data, I'm seeing mostly data gaps across the remaining categories—HY spreads, futures open interest, moving averages, and the broader market indicators like US indices and currencies are all missing. The ones that are available show neutral to bearish signals: the KOSPI and K200 are both down significantly, the won's weakening against the dollar, and the Shanghai composite is up slightly. Based on what I have, the overall picture leans bearish given the substantial losses across Korean markets. So the early morning data likely captures the market's initial reaction around 9:05 AM KST on March 31, while the midday data reflects the state at 2:30 PM KST. The ticker data from late March 30 shows the previous close, but I'm realizing the analysis date should be March 31, which means these market movements are what's available from the previous session.

The key insight is that the March 30 close was 805.19, and by March 31 early morning it had already dropped to 780.32—a decline of about 3.09%—likely driven by overnight risk factors like US futures weakness or geopolitical concerns. Now I'm looking at what specific risk events from March 30 or overnight could have triggered this move.

The Korean news mentions "전쟁 리스크" (war risk) and rising oil and currency prices as the drivers, which aligns with geopolitical tension potentially escalating. Looking at the data more carefully, the morning shows a -3.09% change from the 805.19 close, while midday shows -2.12% from 780.32—meaning the market actually recovered slightly through the session. The total decline from close to midday is about -5.15%, which exceeds the ±3% mean reversion threshold and warrants an alert.

The key takeaway is that this was an oversold opening followed by some recovery, but the broader trend remains downward. I should flag the missing data points and structure my response with what I can confirm from the available information.

</think>

KOSPI 200 선물 시장 분석 (2026-03-31)

Tier 1 — 핵심 시그널

1. 선물 베이시스 (FUTURES_BASIS)

[데이터 없음] — 시장 데이터에 현물 KOSPI 200 지수(780.32)와 별도의 선물(Futures) 가격이 동시에 제공되지 않아 베이시스 계산 불가. Tier 1 시그널이므로 반드시 데이터 확보 필요.

2. 외국인 순매수

[데이터 없음]

> ⚠️ Tier 1 시그널 누락. 외국인은 KOSPI200 방향을 결정하는 가장 중요한 주체이며, 당일 및 5일 누적 방향 확인 필수.

3. 평균회귀 체크 (MEAN_REVERSION)

[베어리쉬] — ⚠️ 과매도 경고

4. 프로그램 매매

[데이터 없음]

Tier 2 — 보조 시그널

5. VIX / VKOSPI

[데이터 없음]

6. HY 스프레드 (BAMLH0A0HYM2)

[데이터 없음]

7. 선물 미결제약정 (KOSPI200F_OI)

[데이터 없음]

8. 이동평균 위치

[데이터 없음]

Tier 3 — 배경

9. US 금리 환경

[데이터 없음] — DGS10, 10Y-2Y 스프레드, 실질금리 데이터 없음

10. 환율

[베어리쉬]

11. US 지수

[데이터 없음] — S&P500, NASDAQ 야간 동향 없음

12. 원자재

[데이터 없음] — WTI, GOLD, COPPER 데이터 없음

Tier 4 — 참고 (1~2줄)

뉴스 기반 맥락

⚠️ 분석 제약사항 요약

> 결론: 오늘은 전일 대비 -5.15%大幅 하락과 원화 약세(USD/KRW 1,525)가 확인되는 명확한 베어리쉬 환경입니다. 다만 Tier 1 핵심 시그널 4개 중 3개가 데이터 없음 상태이므로, 선물 베이시스 부호 전환 여부·외국인 매수/매도 방향·프로그램 차익매매 방향을 파악하기 전까지 확정적 매수/매도 판단은 유보해야 합니다.